Identification of two tofacitinib subpopulations with different relative risk versus TNF inhibitors: an analysis of the open label, randomised controlled study ORAL Surveillance.

OBJECTIVES: Based on primary results from ORAL Surveillance, an event-driven clinical trial of risk-enriched patients, identify subpopulations with different relative risk (ie, 'high-risk' and 'low-risk') with tofacitinib versus tumour necrosis factor inhibitors (TNFi).

METHODS: Patients with rheumatoid arthritis aged ≥50 years with ≥1 additional cardiovascular risk factor received tofacitinib 5 or 10 mg two times a day or TNFi. Prior analyses had identified age and smoking as risk factors of particular interest across safety outcomes. Hazard ratios (HRs) and incidence rates were evaluated by age and smoking individually and in combination. Results were validated across tofacitinib development programmes.

RESULTS: 'Age ≥65 years or ever smoker' defined a group ('high-risk') with increased risk of malignancies (excluding non-melanoma skin cancer), major adverse cardiovascular events, myocardial infarction, venous thromboembolism and all-cause death with tofacitinib (combined doses) versus TNFi (HRs 1.41-5.19). In patients 'aged <65 years and never smokers' ('low-risk'), there was no detectable risk increase with tofacitinib versus TNFi (HRs ≈1.0) up to 6 years of follow-up, and absolute risk remained low and was corroborated across tofacitinib rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis and ulcerative colitis programmes with up to 10 years of observation.

CONCLUSIONS: This posthoc analysis of ORAL Surveillance identified two tofacitinib subpopulations with different relative risk versus TNFi. High risk was confined to patients defined by distinct risk factors age ≥65 years or smoking, and these differentiating risk factors accounted for the excess risk observed with tofacitinib versus TNFi. These findings can guide individualised benefit/risk assessment and clinical decision-making on treatment with tofacitinib.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBERS: NCT02092467, NCT01262118, NCT01484561, NCT00147498, NCT00413660, NCT00550446, NCT00603512, NCT00687193, NCT01164579, NCT00976599, NCT01059864, NCT01359150, NCT02147587, NCT00960440, NCT00847613, NCT00814307, NCT00856544, NCT00853385, NCT01039688, NCT02281552, NCT02187055, NCT02831855, NCT00413699, NCT00661661, NCT00787202, NCT01465763, NCT01458951, NCT01458574, NCT01470612, NCT01877668, NCT01882439, NCT01976364.