Impact of the 12-gene recurrence score in influencing adjuvant chemotherapy prescription in mismatch repair proficient stage II/III colonic carcinoma-a systematic review and meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION: The 12-gene recurrence score (RS) is a clinically validated assay which predicts recurrence risk in patients with stage II/III colon cancer. Decisions regarding adjuvant chemotherapy may be guided using this assay or based on the judgement of tumour board.

AIMS: To assess the concordance between the RS and MDT decisions regarding adjuvant chemotherapy in colon cancer.

METHODS: A systematic review was performed in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. Meta-analyses were performed using the Mantel-Haenszel method using the Review Manager version 5.4 software.

RESULTS: Four studies including 855 patients with a mean age of 68 years (range: 25-90 years) met inclusion criteria. Overall, 79.2% had stage II disease (677/855) and 20.8% had stage III disease (178/855). For the entire cohort, concordant results between the 12-gene assay and MDT were more likely than discordant (odds ratio (OR): 0.38, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.25-0.56, P < 0.001). Patients were more likely to have chemotherapy omitted than escalated when using the RS (OR: 9.76, 95% CI: 6.72-14.18, P < 0.001). For those with stage II disease, concordant results between the 12-gene assay and MDT were more likely than discordant (OR: 0.30, 95% CI: 0.17-0.53, P < 0.001). In stage II disease, patients were more likely to have chemotherapy omitted than escalated when using the RS (OR: 7.39, 95% CI: 4.85-11.26, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS: The use of the 12-gene signature refutes the decision of tumour board in 25% of cases, with 75% of discordant decisions resulting in omission of adjuvant chemotherapy. Therefore, it is possible that a proportion of such patients are being overtreated when relying on tumour board decisions alone.