The Arthroplasty Surgeon Growth Indicator: A Tool for Monitoring Supply and Demand Trends in the Orthopaedic Surgeon Workforce from 2020 to 2050.

BACKGROUND: Orthopaedic practices in the U.S. face a growing demand for total joint arthroplasties (TJAs), while the orthopaedic workforce size has been stagnant for decades. This study aimed to estimate annual TJA demand and orthopaedic surgeon workforce supply from 2020 to 2050, and to develop an arthroplasty surgeon growth indicator (ASGI), based on the arthroplasty-to-surgeon ratio (ASR), to gauge nationwide supply and demand trends.

METHODS: National Inpatient Sample and Association of American Medical Colleges data were reviewed for individuals who underwent primary TJA and for active orthopaedic surgeons (2010 to 2020), respectively. The projected annual TJA volume and number of orthopaedic surgeons were modeled using negative binominal and linear regression, respectively. The ASR is the number of actual (or projected) annual total hip (THA) and/or knee (TKA) arthroplasties divided by the number of actual (or projected) orthopaedic surgeons. ASGI values were calculated using the 2017 ASR values as the reference, with the resulting 2017 ASGI defined as 100.

RESULTS: The ASR calculation for 2017 showed an annual caseload per orthopaedic surgeon (n = 19,001) of 24.1 THAs, 41.1 TKAs, and 65.2 TJAs. By 2050, the TJA volume was projected to be 1,219,852 THAs (95% confidence interval [CI]: 464,808 to 3,201,804) and 1,037,474 TKAs (95% CI: 575,589 to 1,870,037). The number of orthopaedic surgeons was projected to decrease by 14% from 2020 to 2050 (18,834 [95% CI: 18,573 to 19,095] to 16,189 [95% CI: 14,724 to 17,655]). This would yield ASRs of 75.4 THAs (95% CI: 31.6 to 181.4), 64.1 TKAs (95% CI: 39.1 to 105.9), and 139.4 TJAs (95% CI: 70.7 to 287.3) by 2050. The TJA ASGI would double from 100 in 2017 to 213.9 (95% CI: 108.4 to 440.7) in 2050.

CONCLUSIONS: Based on historical trends in TJA volumes and active orthopaedic surgeons, the average TJA caseload per orthopaedic surgeon may need to double by 2050 to meet projected U.S. demand. Further studies are needed to determine how the workforce can best meet this demand without compromising the quality of care in a value-driven health-care model. However, increasing the number of trained orthopaedic surgeons by 10% every 5 years may be a potential solution.