Malignancy Risk of Thyroid Nodules That Are Not Classifiable by the ATA Ultrasound Risk Stratification System: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Sonographic evaluation is fundamental to thyroid nodule assessment. The American Thyroid Association (ATA) ultrasound risk stratification system (USRSS) is widely used, but the appearance of some nodules has been considered non-classifiable (NC-ATA). The risk of malignancy (RoM) of NC-ATA nodules varies widely between studies, leading to uncertainty in clinical management. The aim of this study was to comprehensively evaluate the prevalence and malignancy risk of NC-ATA nodules.

METHODS: A systematic review was performed searching PubMed/MEDLINE and EMBASE to identify original studies of thyroid nodules classified using the ATA USRSS from 2016 to 2022 and reporting the outcome of NC-ATA nodules. Meta-analysis was conducted to obtain pooled RoM estimates and meta-regression sensitivity analyses were used to explore sources of between-study heterogeneity.

RESULTS: Of 6,377 screened studies, 135 underwent full text review, and 16 studies reporting 21,271 nodules were included. Within these, the pooled prevalence of NC-ATA nodules was 7.8% (1,872 nodules; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 5.1%, 11.1%). The pooled RoM estimate for NC-ATA nodules was 20.3% (CI=13.0%, 28.7%) and there was significant heterogeneity between studies (I2=92.8%, p<0.001). NC-ATA nodule RoM estimates were significantly different by study type: single-center vs. multi-center studies (24.8% vs. 12.3%, respectively, p=0.031) and study design: retrospective vs. prospective studies (25.1% vs. 8.5%, respectively, p=0.003). No significant difference was observed in RoM based on inclusion of <1cm nodules or geographic region. Meta-regression analysis showed study design and use of surgical histology for diagnostic criteria contributed significantly to differences in the reported RoM estimates.

CONCLUSION: In this first meta-analysis comprehensively assessing the RoM of NC-ATA nodules, the malignancy risk was found to be comparable to the current ATA USRSS intermediate suspicion category. Significant heterogeneity was observed between studies and limits the interpretation of these results. In future iterations of the ATA USRSS that seek into incorporate categorization of NC-ATA nodules, these meta-analysis data may help to inform proper malignancy risk stratification.