Prognostic modeling in biliary diseases.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: To discuss the prognostic models for the cholestatic diseases focusing on primary sclerosing cholangitis and primary biliary cholangitis.

RECENT FINDINGS: Noninvasive prognostic models that outperform alkaline phosphatase and Mayo Risk Score have been developed to predict clinically significant events, such as transplant free survival or hepatic decompensation. Models for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) include UK-PSC, Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis Risk Estimate Tool, and Amsterdam Oxford models. Models for primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) include UK-PBC, Global primary biliary cholangitis group score (GLOBE) and Paris II scores. Other models have incorporated elastography with or without findings on magnetic resonance imaging.

SUMMARY: Noninvasive prognostic models can inform patients about their risk for clinical outcomes and serve as surrogate intermediate outcomes to determine efficacy of novel agents in clinical trials.