Predictors of long-term disability in multiple sclerosis patients using routine magnetic resonance imaging data: A 15-year retrospective study.

INTRODUCTION: Early identification of patients at high risk of progression could help with a personalised treatment strategy. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measures have been proposed to predict long-term disability in multiple sclerosis (MS), but a reliable predictor that can be easily implemented clinically is still needed.

AIM: Assess MRI measures during the first 5 years of the MS disease course for the ability to predict progression at 10+ years.

METHODS: Eighty-two MS patients (53 females), with ≥10 years of clinical follow-up and having two MRI scans, were included. Clinical data were obtained at baseline, follow-up and at ≥10 years. White matter lesion (WML) counts and volumes, and four linear brain sizes were measured on T2/FLAIR 'Fluid-Attenuated-Inversion-Recovery' and T1-weighted images.

RESULTS: Baseline and follow-up inter-caudate diameter (ICD) and third ventricular width (TVW) measures correlated positively with Expanded Disability Status Scale, ≥10 or more of WMLs showed a high sensitivity in predicting progression, at ≥10 years. A steeper rate of lesion volume increase was observed in subjects converting to secondary progressive MS. The sensitivity and specificity of both ICD and TVW, to predict disability at ≥10 years were 60% and 64%, respectively.

CONCLUSION: Despite advances in brain imaging and computerised volumetric analysis, ICD and TVW remain relevant as they are simple, fast and have the potential in predicting long-term disability. However, in this study, despite the statistical significance of these measures, the clinical utility is still not reliable.