Cost Effectiveness of Denosumab for Secondary Prevention of Osteoporotic Fractures Among Postmenopausal Women in China: An Individual-Level Simulation Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: This study evaluated the cost effectiveness of denosumab versus alendronate for secondary prevention of osteoporotic fractures among post-menopausal women in China.

METHODS: A validated individual-level simulation model of osteoporotic fractures in the Chinese setting was adapted. Allowing both treatment discontinuation and waning effects, the analysis aimed to evaluate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of denosumab compared to alendronate by simulating a cohort of previously fractured individuals over the residual lifetime from the healthcare system perspective. Hip, vertebral, and wrist/humeral fractures were tracked along with the associated medical costs and quality-adjusted life-years. Age-related health state utility values, health state utility values of fractures, costs, fracture incidence, and mortality risks for Chinese were used whenever available. Comparative effectiveness data were obtained from a published network meta-analysis. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted.

RESULTS: In the base case, denosumab was dominated by alendronate with incremental costs of CN¥2743 (US$425) and incremental health outcomes of - 0.20 quality-adjusted life-years at its current price in mainland China. It remained dominated in all one-way sensitivity analysis robustness checks. However, denosumab was cost effective if both drugs did not carry any waning effects. In the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, denosumab remained dominated in all replications.

CONCLUSIONS: Denosumab is not cost effective for preventing secondary fractures among overall postmenopausal women in China. It is advisable to identify alternative denosumab regimens for high-risk subgroups among previously fractured postmenopausal women.