We have located links that may give you full text access.
Evaluating the impact of the travel ban within mainland China on the epidemic of the COVID-19.
International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID 2021 April 8
OBJECTIVES: The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic expanded its geographic distribution through the movement of humans and caused subsequent local outbreaks. Hence, it is essential to investigate how human mobility and travel ban affect the transmission and spatial spread while minimizing the impact on social activities and national economics.
METHODS: We developed a mobility network model for spatial epidemics, explicitly taking into account time-varying inter-province and inner-province population flows, spatial heterogeneity in terms of disease transmission, as well as the impact of media reports. The model is applied to study the epidemic of the dynamic network of 30 provinces of mainland China. The model was calibrated using the publicly available incidence and movement data.
RESULTS: We estimated that the second outbreak occurred approximately on February 24, 2020, and the cumulative number of cases as of March 15, 2020, increased by 290.1% (95% CI: (255.3%, 324.9%)) without a travel ban in mainland China (excluding Hubei and Tibet). We found that inter-province travel contributes more to the increase of cumulative number of cases than intra-province travel.
CONCLUSION: Our quantitative and qualitative research results suggest that the strict travel ban has successfully prevented a severe secondary outbreak in mainland China, which provides solutions for many countries and regions experiencing secondary outbreaks of COVID-19.
METHODS: We developed a mobility network model for spatial epidemics, explicitly taking into account time-varying inter-province and inner-province population flows, spatial heterogeneity in terms of disease transmission, as well as the impact of media reports. The model is applied to study the epidemic of the dynamic network of 30 provinces of mainland China. The model was calibrated using the publicly available incidence and movement data.
RESULTS: We estimated that the second outbreak occurred approximately on February 24, 2020, and the cumulative number of cases as of March 15, 2020, increased by 290.1% (95% CI: (255.3%, 324.9%)) without a travel ban in mainland China (excluding Hubei and Tibet). We found that inter-province travel contributes more to the increase of cumulative number of cases than intra-province travel.
CONCLUSION: Our quantitative and qualitative research results suggest that the strict travel ban has successfully prevented a severe secondary outbreak in mainland China, which provides solutions for many countries and regions experiencing secondary outbreaks of COVID-19.
Full text links
Related Resources
Trending Papers
Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction: diagnosis, risk assessment, and treatment.Clinical Research in Cardiology : Official Journal of the German Cardiac Society 2024 April 12
Proximal versus distal diuretics in congestive heart failure.Nephrology, Dialysis, Transplantation 2024 Februrary 30
World Health Organization and International Consensus Classification of eosinophilic disorders: 2024 update on diagnosis, risk stratification, and management.American Journal of Hematology 2024 March 30
Efficacy and safety of pharmacotherapy in chronic insomnia: A review of clinical guidelines and case reports.Mental Health Clinician 2023 October
Get seemless 1-tap access through your institution/university
For the best experience, use the Read mobile app
All material on this website is protected by copyright, Copyright © 1994-2024 by WebMD LLC.
This website also contains material copyrighted by 3rd parties.
By using this service, you agree to our terms of use and privacy policy.
Your Privacy Choices
You can now claim free CME credits for this literature searchClaim now
Get seemless 1-tap access through your institution/university
For the best experience, use the Read mobile app