JOURNAL ARTICLE

Prediction of COVID-19 cases using the weather integrated deep learning approach for India

Kantha Rao Bhimala, Gopal Krishna Patra, Rajashekar Mopuri, Srinivasa Rao Mutheneni
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases 2021 April 10
33837675
Advanced and accurate forecasting of COVID-19 cases plays a crucial role in planning and supplying resources effectively. Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques have proved their capability in time series forecasting non-linear problems. In the present study, the relationship between weather factor and COVID-19 cases was assessed, and also developed a forecasting model using long short-term memory (LSTM), a deep learning model. The study found that the specific humidity has a strong positive correlation, whereas there is a negative correlation with maximum temperature, and a positive correlation with minimum temperature was observed in various geographic locations of India. The weather data and COVID-19 confirmed case data (1st April to 30th June 2020) were used to optimize univariate and multivariate LSTM time series forecast models. The optimized models were utilized to forecast the daily COVID-19 cases for the period 1st July 2020 to 31st July 2020 with 1 to 14 days of lead time. The results showed that the univariate LSTM model was reasonably good for the short-term (1 day lead) forecast of COVID-19 cases (relative error < 20%). Moreover, the multivariate LSTM model improved the medium-range forecast skill (1-7 days lead) after including the weather factors. The study observed that the specific humidity played a crucial role in improving the forecast skill majorly in the West and northwest region of India. Similarly, the temperature played a significant role in model enhancement in the Southern and Eastern regions of India.

Full Text Links

Find Full Text Links for this Article

Discussion

You are not logged in. Sign Up or Log In to join the discussion.

Trending Papers

Remove bar
Read by QxMD icon Read
33837675
×

Save your favorite articles in one place with a free QxMD account.

×

Search Tips

Use Boolean operators: AND/OR

diabetic AND foot
diabetes OR diabetic

Exclude a word using the 'minus' sign

Virchow -triad

Use Parentheses

water AND (cup OR glass)

Add an asterisk (*) at end of a word to include word stems

Neuro* will search for Neurology, Neuroscientist, Neurological, and so on

Use quotes to search for an exact phrase

"primary prevention of cancer"
(heart or cardiac or cardio*) AND arrest -"American Heart Association"