Validating scores predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence post catheter ablation in patients with concurrent atrial fibrillation and pulmonary diseases.

BACKGROUND: Several scores were available for predicting atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence post radiofrequency ablation. However, the role of different scores predicting AF recurrence after ablation in patients with concurrent AF and pulmonary diseases (PDs) remained obscure. Herein, we aimed to investigate their predicting values and differences in patients with concurrent AF and PDs.

METHODS: From January 2008 to April 2015, 304 patients with concurrent AF and PDs treated with catheter ablation were divided into 2 groups according to whether they experienced AF recurrence in our centers. Factors related with AF recurrence were explored using Cox regression and scores predicting recurrent AF were compared in these patients using ROC curves.

RESULTS: During a median of 6-month of follow-up, factors correlating with late AF recurrence included heart failure (HF) history [hazard ratio (HR): 2.79; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.49-5.22, P=0.001], current smoking (1.73; 1.13-2.68, P=0.01) and early AF recurrence (3.85; 95% CI: 2.62-5.66, P<0.001) according to univariate Cox regression analysis. When analyzed using multivariate Cox model, HF history (2.21; 1.12-4.37, P=0.02), hypertension history (1.54; 1.02-2.33, P=0.04) and early AF recurrence (3.90; 2.60-5.85, P<0.001) were related to late AF recurrence. The BASE-AF2 score had higher c-index than the MB-LATER, APPLE, CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, CAAP-AF and HATCH scores when compared using ROC curves analysis (all P<0.05). The optimal point for predicting AF recurrence of the BASE-AF2 score in the ROC analysis was 1 point with sensitivity of 69.03% and specificity of 60.21%.

CONCLUSIONS: The predicting AF recurrence value of BASE-AF2 score was superior to MB-LATER, APPLE, CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc, CAAP-AF and HATCH scores in patients with concurrent AF and PDs, which can be an effective and helpful score for making AF treatment decisions.