Risk estimation of sexual transmission of Zika virus-United States, 2016-2017.

BACKGROUND: Zika virus (ZIKV) can be transmitted sexually, but the risk of sexual transmission remains unknown. Most evidence of sexual transmission is from partners of infected travelers returning from areas with ZIKV circulation.

METHODS: We used data from the U.S. national arboviral disease surveillance system (ArboNET) on travel- and sexually-acquired ZIKV disease cases during 2016-2017 to develop individual-level simulations for estimating risk of male-to-female, male-to-male, and female-to-male sexual transmission of ZIKV via vaginal and/or anal intercourse. We specified parametric distributions to characterize individual-level variability of parameters for ZIKV persistence and sexual behaviors.

RESULTS: Using ZIKV RNA persistence in semen/vaginal fluids to approximate infectiousness duration, male-to-male transmission had the highest estimated probability [1.3% (95% CI: 0.4-6.0) per anal sex act], followed by male-to-female and female-to-male transmission [0.4% (95% CI: 0.3-0.6) per vaginal/anal sex act and 0.1% (95% CI:0-0.8) per vaginal sex act, respectively]. Models using viral isolation in semen vs. RNA detection to approximate infectiousness duration predicted greater risk of sexual transmission.

CONCLUSIONS: While likely insufficient to maintain sustained transmission, the estimated risk of ZIKV transmission through unprotected sex is not trivial and is especially important for pregnant women, as ZIKV infection can cause severe congenital disorders.