Prediction of cerebral venous thrombosis with a new clinical score and D-dimer levels

Mirjam R Heldner, Susanna M Zuurbier, Bojun Li, Rascha Von Martial, Joost C M Meijers, Rebekka Zimmermann, Bastian Volbers, Simon Jung, Marwan El-Koussy, Urs Fischer, Hans P Kohler, Verena Schroeder, Jonathan M Coutinho, Marcel Arnold
Neurology 2020 August 18, 95 (7): e898-e909

OBJECTIVE: To investigate prediction of cerebral venous thrombosis (CVT) by clinical variables and D-dimer levels.

METHODS: This prospective multicenter study included consecutive patients with clinically possible CVT. On admission, patients underwent clinical examination, blood sampling for D-dimers measuring (ELISA test), and magnetic resonance/CT venography. Predictive value of clinical variables and D-dimers for CVT was calculated. A clinical score to stratify patients into groups with low, moderate, or high CVT risk was established with multivariate logistic regression.

RESULTS: CVT was confirmed in 26.2% (94 of 359) of patients by neuroimaging. The optimal estimate of clinical probability was based on 6 variables: seizure(s) at presentation (4 points), known thrombophilia (4 points), oral contraception (2 points), duration of symptoms >6 days (2 points), worst headache ever (1 point), and focal neurologic deficit at presentation (1 point) (area under the curve [AUC] 0.889). We defined 0 to 2 points as low CVT probability (negative predictive value [NPV] 94.1%). Of the 186 (51.8%) patients who had a low probability score, 11 (5.9%) had CVT. The frequency of CVT was 28.3% (34 of 120) in patients with a moderate (3-5 points) and 92.5% (49 of 53) in patients with a high (6-12 points) probability score. All low CVT probability patients with CVT had D-dimers >500 μg/L. Predictive value of D-dimers for CVT for >675 μg/L (best cutoff) vs >500 μg/L was as follows: sensitivity 77.7%, specificity, 77%, NPV 90.7%, and accuracy 77.2% vs sensitivity 89.4%, specificity 66.4%, NPV 94.6%, and accuracy 72.4%, respectively. Adding the clinical score to D-dimers >500 μg/L resulted in the best CVT prediction score explored (at the cutoff ≥6 points: sensitivity 83%/specificity 86.8%/NPV 93.5%/accuracy 84.4%/AUC 0.937).

CONCLUSION: The proposed new clinical score in combination with D-dimers may be helpful for predicting CVT as a pretest score; none of the patients with CVT showed low clinical probability for CVT and D-dimers <500 μg/L.


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