Change in predicted 10-year and lifetime cardiovascular disease risk after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass.

BACKGROUND: Long-term changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk after bariatric surgery are not well characterized.

OBJECTIVE: To report sex-specific changes in CVD risk after Roux-en-Y gastric bypass surgery (RYGB).

SETTING: Observational cohort study at ten hospitals throughout the United States.

METHODS: Between 2006 and 2009, 1770 adults enrolled in a prospective cohort study underwent RYGB at 1 of 10 U.S. hospitals. Research assessments were conducted presurgery and annually postsurgery over 7 years. Sex specific-predicted 10-year and lifetime CVD risk were calculated using the Framingham10-year and lifetime risk scores, Framingham-body mass index, and atherosclerotic CVD scoring algorithms among participants with no history of CVD. Of 1566 eligible participants, 1234 (75.9%) with CVD risk determination pre- and postsurgery were included (1013 females, 221 males).

RESULTS: Based on the Framingham10-year and lifetime risk scores, the percentage of females with predicted high (>20%) 10-year CVD risk declined from presurgery (6.5% [95% confidence interval: 6.7-7.5]) to 1 year postsurgery (1.0% [95% confidence interval: .8-1.2]; P < .001), then increased 1 to 7 years postsurgery (to 2.8% [95% confidence interval: 1.6-3.3]; P = .003), but was lower 7 years postsurgery versus presurgery (P < .001). Time trends for percentage of high-risk participants and mean CVD risk scores were similar for both sexes and other evaluated CVD risk scores. For example, among males mean lifetime atherosclerotic CVD score declined from presurgery to 1 year postsurgery, then increased 1 to 7 years postsurgery. However, there was a net decline from presurgery (P < .001).

CONCLUSION: Among both females and males, predicted 10-year and lifetime CVD risk was substantially lower 7 years post RYGB than presurgery, suggesting RYGB surgery can lead to sustained improvements in short- and long-term CVD risk.