Epidemiological trends, predictive factors, and projection of tooth loss in Germany 1997-2030: part II. Edentulism in seniors

Falk Schwendicke, Ina Nitschke, Helmut Stark, Wolfgang Micheelis, Rainer A Jordan
Clinical Oral Investigations 2020 April 3

OBJECTIVE: This is the second part of a report on tooth loss in Germany 1997-2030. Here, we describe trends in the prevalence of edentulism in seniors 1997-2014, assess predictive factors for edentulism, and projected it into 2030.

MATERIAL AND METHODS: We used data from three waves of the cross-sectional, multi-center, nationwide representative German Oral Health Studies. Overall, 3449 seniors (65-74 years) were included (1997: 1367; 2005: 1040; 2016: 1042). Age, sex, educational level, smoking status, and the cohort were entered into age-cohort binary-logistic regression models to assess the association of predictors with edentulism and to project edentulism in 2030 via Monte Carlo simulations.

RESULTS: Between 1997 and 2014, the prevalence of edentulism decreased from 24.8 to 12.4%. With each year of age, the risk of being edentate increased (by 11%, p < 0.001); it was also significantly increased in female versus male (by 40%, p = 0.001), low versus medium and high educational level (up to 257%, p < 0.001), and in former and current smokers (up to 258%, p < 0.001). We predict the prevalence of edentulism to be reduced to 4.2% in 2030. The reduction will be higher in males, never and former smokers, and those with low socio-educational level. On an absolute level and despite a growing elderly population (aged 60-80 years), the number of edentate individuals will have decreased by 3.6 million in 2030 compared with 1997.

CONCLUSIONS: Edentulism in seniors has declined equitably in Germany. The decline is expected to continue until 2030. Further efforts are needed to tackle the underlying risk factors.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE: This study presents trends of edentulism in Germany for a period of three decades. It provides clinically relevant data for health care planning by 2030.

Full Text Links

Find Full Text Links for this Article


You are not logged in. Sign Up or Log In to join the discussion.

Related Papers

Available on the App Store

Available on the Play Store
Remove bar
Read by QxMD icon Read

Search Tips

Use Boolean operators: AND/OR

diabetic AND foot
diabetes OR diabetic

Exclude a word using the 'minus' sign

Virchow -triad

Use Parentheses

water AND (cup OR glass)

Add an asterisk (*) at end of a word to include word stems

Neuro* will search for Neurology, Neuroscientist, Neurological, and so on

Use quotes to search for an exact phrase

"primary prevention of cancer"
(heart or cardiac or cardio*) AND arrest -"American Heart Association"