[Prediction value of plasma histone in prognosis of sepsis patients]

Nianfang Lu, Li Jiang, Bo Zhu, Degang Yang, Ruiqiang Zheng, Jun Shao, Xiuming Xi
Zhonghua Wei Zhong Bing Ji Jiu Yi Xue 2019, 31 (6): 674-679

OBJECTIVE: To explore the value of plasma histones in predicting the prognosis of sepsis patients.

METHODS: The patients with sepsis admitted to intensive care unit (ICU) of Subei People's Hospital of Jiangsu Province Affiliated to Yangzhou University from May 2016 to June 2018 were enrolled as the research subjects, and healthy volunteers were selected as healthy control at the same period. The plasma levels of histones, cardiac troponin I (cTnI), N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, lactate (Lac), procalcitonin (PCT) on admission 24 hours, and use of vasoconstrictor agents, the length of ICU stay and ICU mortality were recorded. The patients were divided into survival group and death group according to the prognosis, and the differences of each index between the two groups were compared. Multivariate binary Logistic regression analysis was carried out to identify the independent risk factors of death. The correlation between histone and the levels of cTnI, NT-proBNP, PCT and Lac was analyzed. The value of plasma histone, cTnI, NT-proBNP, PCT and Lac in predicting the prognosis of patients was analyzed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. According to the threshold value of histone in predicting prognosis, the patients were divided into two groups, and the differences of various indicators between the two groups were compared.

RESULTS: (1) A total of 93 sepsis patients were included, with 29 cases of ICU death, and the mortality was 31.2%. (2) Compared with the healthy control group, histones, cTnI, NT-proBNP were significant increased, besides, histones, cTnI in the death group were further increased compared with the survival group; in addition, SOFA, proportion of vasoconstrictor use were also significant higher than those in the survival group [histones (mg/L): 0.33 (0.28,0.45) vs. 0.22 (0.17,0.29), cTnI (μg/L): 0.25±0.13 vs. 0.20±0.08, SOFA: 11 (8, 12) vs. 9 (8, 11), the rate of vasopressor use: 93.1% (27/29) vs. 68.8% (44/64), all P < 0.05]. Statistically significant indicators between the two groups were included in multivariate binary Logistic regression analysis. The result showed that the independent risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients were the rate of vasopressor use [odds ratio (OR) = 5.277, P = 0.043] and the level of histone (OR = 79.244, P = 0.036). (3) The plasma histone level were positively correlated with cTnI (r = 0.577, P = 0.000), SOFA (r = 0.469, P = 0.000), NT-proBNP (r = 0.349, P = 0.001) and Lac (r = 0.357, P = 0.000), while there was no significant correlation between histone and PCT (r = 0.133, P = 0.205). (4) ROC curve analysis showed that the area under ROC curve (AUC) of histone predicting prognosis was 0.769 (P = 0.000); when the cut-off point was 0.30 mg/L, the sensitivity and specificity were 72.4% and 81.2% respectively. The AUC of SOFA score was 0.653 (P = 0.018), and the sensitivity and specificity were 58.6% and 70.3% respectively when the cut-off point was 10.50; while cTnI, NT-proBNP, Lac and PCT had little value in predicting the prognosis of patients. (5) Compared with the group with histone level lower than 0.3 mg/L, the group with histones level greater than 0.3 mg/L had higher SOFA score, more doses of vasopressor, higher cTnI, NT-proBNP, Lac and PCT levels, and higher ICU mortality [SOFA: 11 (10, 12) vs. 9 (8, 10), use of vasopressor: 84.8% (28/33) vs. 76.7% (46/60), cTnI (μg/L): 0.28 (0.19, 0.32) vs. 0.18 (0.12, 0.22), NT-proBNP (ng/L): 3 624.0 (2 800.0, 5 260.0) vs. 2 512.0 (1 361.8, 3 590.8), Lac (mmol/L): 2.25 (1.85, 3.50) vs. 1.60 (1.25, 2.35), PCT (μg/L): 2.10 (1.30, 4.03) vs. 1.60 (1.26, 2.33), ICU mortality: 48.5% (16/33) vs. 21.7% (13/60), all P < 0.05], while no statistical difference in the length of ICU stay was found.

CONCLUSIONS: The independent risk factors for ICU mortality of sepsis patients were high histone level and the use of vasopressor. Plasma histone can be regarded as an indicator in predicting the prognosis of patients with sepsis.

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