Trend of malaria cases in Kaduna State using routine surveillance data, 2011-2015.

Introduction: in 2015, 212 million malaria cases and 429,000 malaria deaths were estimated globally. Kaduna State, located in northern Nigeria had a malaria prevalence rate of 36.7% among children less than 5 years old which was higher than the national average of 27%. We assessed the trend of malaria cases in Kaduna State from 2011 to 2015, to analyse trend of malaria in Kaduna as well as describe malaria in time, place and person.

Methods: we conducted secondary data analysis of Kaduna State malaria data between January 2011 and December 2015. Data were extracted from the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) 003 form. Data of uncomplicated malaria defined as "any person with fever or history of fever within 24 hours; without signs of severe disease (vital organ dysfunction)" was analysed. In IDSR, a case of malaria is based on presumed diagnosis. Frequencies and proportions were calculated. We also conducted trend analysis of incidence of malaria.

Results: in the period under study, 1,031,603 malaria cases were recorded with 238 deaths (CFR = 0.23 per 1,000). There was a downward trend with a slope of -3287.2. The data showed higher seasonal variation for quarters 2 (1430.96) and 3 (Q2 = 6,460.23) compared to Quarters 1 (6,857.19) and 4 (-1,034.01). Overall, the age group 12 -59 months had the highest number of incident cases 225, 537 (20.3%). Malaria death was highest in children 1 to 11 months (26.5%) and least, in children 0 -28 days (2.5%). CFR was also highest in children 1 to 11 months (0.45 per 1,000). The highest incidence of malaria cases was in Jaba Local Government Area (47.7%) and the least, in Lere (2.4%).

Conclusion: there was a decreased incidence of malaria from 2011 to 2015. Malaria was most common in the second and third quarters of each year. Age group 12-59 months was most affected. Kaduna State Malaria Programme should sustain the programs it is implementing and focus more on the under-five years age group.