External Validation of START nomogram to predict 3-Month unfavorable outcome in Chinese acute stroke patients.

BACKGROUND: Recently, the NIHSS STroke Scale score, Age, pre-stroke mRS score, onset-to-treatment Time (START nomogram) predicts 3-month functional outcome after intravenous thrombolysis in ischemic stroke patients. However, this model has not yet been an external validation. We aim to validate the performance of START nomogram.

METHODS: Data were derived from the stroke center of the Nanjing First Hospital (China). Patients who lacked the necessary data to calculate the nomogram and missed 3-month modified Ranking scale scores were excluded. Modified Rankin Scale score more than 2 at 3-month was assessed as an unfavorable outcome. We used areas under the receiver operator characteristic curves (AUC-ROC) to quantify the prognostic value. Calibration was assessed by calibration plots and Hosmer-Lemeshow (HL) goodness of fit test.

RESULT: The final cohort included 306 eligible patients. For 3-month unfavorable outcome, the AUC-ROC of the START nomogram was .766 (95%CI: .7013-.8304, P < .0001), suggesting good discrimination in the START nomogram. It also showed good calibration (HL goodness of fit test P = .1261) in the external validation sample.

CONCLUSION: The START nomogram with good predictive performance is a reliable and simple clinical instrument to predict unfavorable outcome after acute stroke.