Quantifying the impacts of climate variability and human interventions on crop production and food security in the Yangtze River Basin, China, 1990-2015.

Food security has become a global policy concern due to its important role in sustaining development and human well-being. Using spatial autocorrelation analysis of statistical data at the county-level, this study quantifies the change in spatial and temporal patterns of crop production in the Yangtze River Basin of China since 1990 and draws out policy implications for food security in the country. Four panel models were constructed to examine in what ways and to what extent four major factors (climate variation, sown area, fertilizer use intensity, and population size) influence the capacity for crop production. The results show that total crop production increased by 15.2% in 1990-2015, while there exists significant spatial heterogeneity in crop output across the upper, middle and lower sections of the Basin. The spatial agglomerations of crop production (hotspots) in the Basin have varied significantly over time, with the hotspots in the lower section having disappeared since 2000. Over a quarter of the total number of counties (649) in the region have experienced a high risk of food shortages, with 19.4-27.4% of counties having experienced severe or moderate shortages of per capita food availability since 1990. This percentage increased from 9.3% to 16.2% in the lower section, while it declined from 53.9% in 1990 to 41.9% in 2015 in the upper section and remained unchanged in the middle section. The variables of sown area, fertilizer use intensity, total precipitation in the growing seasons and time (Year) have significant positive effects on the growth of crop production, but mean temperature in the growing seasons of crops and total population have significant and negative relationships with crop outputs. Establishing a reliable food supply system, safeguarding high-quality cultivated land and increasing fertilizer use efficiency are suggested as imperative countermeasures to mitigate food security risks in the Yangtze River Basin.