Profile and evolution of the Global Burden of Morbidity in the Maghreb (Tunisia,Morocco, Algeria). The Triple burden of morbidity.

BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) is an objective method of measurement of disease disability, allowing the quantification of a population's health status, the identification of its health needs, and the determination of its public health priorities.

OBJECTIVES: To document the epidemiological transition in Maghreb countries (Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria) over the past three decades and to identify their priority health problems, which are responsible for a considerable burden of disability.

METHODS: This is a data synthesis work of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) global burden of disease, through its project "GBD Compare Data Visualization". Data covering the period from 1990 to 2016, examined the three major categories of health problems "communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional diseases", "noncommunicable diseases" and "injuries", as well as the three types of risk: metabolic, environmental / professional and behavioral.

RESULTS: Since 1990, cardiovascular diseases have consistently been the leading cause of death in the three Maghreb countries. During the period 1990-2016, and at varying speeds, the positions of communicable and neonatal diseases declined, while noncommunicable diseases (particularly cardiovascular diseases, cancers, mental disorders, diabetes and neurological disorders) increased significantly, to be at the top of the list of components of the global burden of disease.In 2016, road accidents have been ranked eighth in the ranking of the main components of the overall burden of morbidity in Tunisia and Morocco and ninth in Algeria. During the same period, the environmental and behavioral risk factors registered an overall decrease in the three Maghreb countries, in contrast to the metabolic risk factors that experienced a gradual and homogeneous increase in the Greater Maghreb.

CONCLUSION: This GBD analysis confirmed the rather old and fairly advanced epidemiological transition in Maghreb countries, leading to a real "triple burden" threatening the stability and sustainability of national health systems. Hence the urgency of supporting the following five projects: the curriculum reform of the faculties of health sciences, the development of the second line of care, the participative management of health services, universal health coverage and the implementation of a comprehensive and integrated strategy for prevention and health promotion.