6-year change in resting heart rate is associated with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Elevated resting heart rate (RHR) is associated with risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, the association of change in RHR (ΔRHR) and incident T2DM is not fully elucidated. We aimed to assess the dose-response association between 6-year ΔRHR and T2DM.

METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 12155 non-T2DM participants ≥18 years old were enrolled during 2007-2008 and followed up during 2013-2014. ΔRHR was calculated by subtracting the baseline RHR from the RHR value at 6-year follow-up. Age-, sex-, and RHR-specific relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the effect of ΔRHR on incident T2DM were calculated by using modified Poisson regression models. As compared with ΔRHR of 0 beats/min, the adjusted risk of T2DM was significantly increased with RHR increment and reduced with RHR reduction. ΔRHR was positively associated with future risk of T2DM [RR per unit increase: 1.03 (1.03-1.04)]. As compared with stable change in RHR group (-5<ΔRHR<5 beats/min), for ΔRHR ≤ -10 beats/min, -10<ΔRHR ≤ -5 beats/min, 5≤ΔRHR<10 beats/min, and ΔRHR ≥10 beats/min groups, the pooled adjusted RR (95% CI) of T2DM was 0.69 (0.55-0.86), 0.90 (0.73-1.11), 1.31 (1.07-1.61), and 1.90 (1.59-2.26), respectively. This significant association still existed on subgroup analyses based on age, sex, and baseline RHR and sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS: Dynamic RHR change was significantly associated with incident T2DM. Our study suggests that RHR may be a non-invasive clinical indicator for interventions aiming to reduce incident T2DM in the general population.