Proximate determinants of fertility in Ethiopia; an application of revised Bongaarts model.

BACKGROUND: World population is growing at about 80 million people each year. Ethiopia is the 12th most populous country in the world. Existing literatures showed that the role of proximate determinants in inhibiting the total fertility has not yet been determined from the DHS data in the country. This study may provide evidence based information regarding the observed changes in total fertility. The objective of this study was assessing proximate determinants of fertility and the role of selected socio-economic variables in influencing fertility in Ethiopia.

METHODS: The EDHS data of 2011 and 2016 were used in our study. A total of 16,515 eligible women included in 2011 and 15,683 in 2016 surveys made up the sample for the study. The roles of each of the four proximate determinants in declining fertility have been determined. The background variables selected for the analysis include: region of residence, educational status, wealth index and place of residence. The Bongaart model is used to explain the observed socio-economic differentials in fertility during the two survey years.

RESULTS: In 2011, index of marriage inhibited fertility by 37.8%, however in 2016 it inhibited fertility by 34.4%. In 2011, contraceptive use reduced fertility by 28.5% while in 2016 it reduced fertility by 30.7%. The index of postpartum infecundity decreased fertility by 34.7% in 2011 and by 34.5% in 2016. Foetal wastage inhibited fertility by 9.2% in both survey years. The total fertility rate in 2016 was 4.14 whereas the projected total fertility in 2020 will be 3.2 children per woman.

CONCLUSION: Among the four proximate determinants of fertility, the contribution of index of marriage was the highest in inhibiting fertility in 2011. On the other hand, the contribution of postpartum infecundability was the highest in inhibiting fertility in 2016. The contribution of the index of contraceptive in inhibiting fertility increased from 28.5% in 2011 to 30.7% in 2016. The index of foetal wastage contributed the least in both 2011 and 2016 survey years. Therefore, strategies have to be designed to promote the contraceptive use and breast feeding practices among the reproductive women.