Race/ethnicity-based temporal changes in prevalence of NAFLD-related advanced fibrosis in the United States, 2005-2016.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Advanced fibrosis associated with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has been reported to have a higher risk of hepatic and non-hepatic mortality. We aim to study the recent trends in the prevalence of NAFLD-related advanced fibrosis in a large population sample.

METHODS: Cross-sectional data from 28,739 participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 2005 to 2016 were utilized. NAFLD was defined using the hepatic steatosis index (HSI) and the US fatty liver index (USFLI) in the absence of other causes of chronic liver disease. The presence and absence of advanced fibrosis in NAFLD was determined by the NAFLD fibrosis score, FIB-4 score, and aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index.

RESULTS: The prevalence of NAFLD-related advanced fibrosis increased from 2.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1-3.1] in 2005-2008 and 4.4% (95% CI 3.7-5.1) in 2009-2012, to 5.0% (95% CI 4.2-5.9) in 2013-2016 using HSI as the NAFLD prediction model; and from 3.3% (95% CI 2.5-4.5) in 2005-2008 and 6.4% (95% CI 3.7-5.1) in 2009-2012, to 6.8% (95% 5.3-8.7) in 2013-2016 using USFLI (p < 0.01). A similar trend was observed in entire NHANES cohort regardless of NAFLD status. While the prevalence of advanced fibrosis increased steadily in non-Hispanic whites through the duration of the study, it leveled off during 2013-2016 in non-Hispanic blacks.

CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of advanced fibrosis associated with NAFLD increased steadily from 2005 to 2016. More importantly, race/ethnicity-based temporal differences were noted in the prevalence of NAFLD-related advanced fibrosis during the study.