Global Patterns and Trends in Pancreatic Cancer Incidence: Age, Period, and Birth Cohort Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: We aim to provide a global geographical picture of pancreatic cancer incidence and temporal trends from 1973 to 2015 for 41 countries.

METHODS: Joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort model was used.

RESULTS: In 2012, the highest age-adjusted rate was in Central and Eastern Europe for male and North America for female. Most regions showed sex disparities. During the recent 10 years, increasing trends were observed in North America, Western Europe, and Oceania. The greatest increase occurred in France. For recent birth cohorts, cohort-specific increases in risk were pronounced in Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada, Costa Rica, Denmark, Estonia, France, Israel, Latvia, Norway, Philippines, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, the Netherlands, United States, and US white male populations and in Australia, Austria, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, China, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Italy, Japan, Lithuania, Norway, Republic of Korea, Singapore, Spain, The Netherlands, United Kingdom, United States, and US white female populations.

CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to the favorable effect of the decrease in smoking prevalence, other factors, including the increased prevalence of obesity and diabetes and increased physical inactivity, increased intake of red or processed meat and inadequate intake of fruits and vegetables are likely to have an unfavorable role in pancreatic cancer incidence worldwide.