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Differences in safety and efficacy of oral anticoagulants in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation: a Bayesian analysis.

BACKGROUND: Novel oral anticoagulants are the cornerstone of therapy for non-valvular atrial fibrillation patients to lower the risk of ischemic stroke. Given the lack of head-to-head comparisons among oral anticoagulants, a Bayesian analysis was used to evaluate their safety and efficacy based on studies from real-world practice.

METHODS: The PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, and Web of Science databases were searched for relevant studies. Bayesian analyses were conducted to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% credible intervals (CrI) for the safety and efficacy oral anticoagulants.

RESULTS: In the 22 studies included in our analysis, novel oral anticoagulants exhibited a clear advantage over warfarin in preventing ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and, especially, intracranial hemorrhage. Incidence of major bleeding was lowest for apixaban, followed by dabigatran, warfarin, and rivaroxaban. Gastrointestinal bleeding risk was lowest for apixaban, followed by warfarin, and was slightly lower for dabigatran than for rivaroxaban with no statistical difference (HR 1.05, 95% CrI 0.99-1.11). Ischemic stroke risk was lowest for rivaroxaban, followed by apixaban, dabigatran, and warfarin (HR 1.13, 95% CrI 1.07-1.20).

CONCLUSION: In real-world practice, apixaban may represent the optimal treatment in terms of safety and efficacy for patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. For patients with high risk of ischemic events but low bleeding risk, rivaroxaban may be preferable. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

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