Predictive Factors of Tumor Recurrence and Survival in Patients with Hepatocellular Carcinoma treated with Transarterial Chemoembolization.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: To evaluate the predictive factors for recurrence of the disease and overall survival (OS) after achieving complete response (CR) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) treated with transarterial chemoembolization (TACE).

METHODS: From January 2013 to December 2017, 168 treatment-naïve patients diagnosed with HCC underwent TACE as a first-line therapy and the gathered data was retrospectively reviewed. We determined the predictive factors for complete response (CR), for recurrence after CR and for survival using the Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS: Median follow-up was 27.4 months (range 4-65 months). The mean patient age was 62.2+/-7.9 years. Eighty-three patients had an α-fetoprotein (AFP) level > 20ng/mL. The median maximal diameter of the tumors was 3.5 cm. Sixty-three patients (37.5%) achieved CR after TACE, and recurrence after CR was detected in 37 patients (58.7%). In multivariate analysis, tumor size (</=4.5 cm) and a single tumor were found to be predictive factors for CR, with hazard ratios (HRs) of 2.352 (p=0.022) and 3.964 (p<0.0001), respectively. After achieving CR the median time to recurrence was 12 months (range 6-24 months). Elevated serum AFP > 25 ng/mL and multiple tumors were demonstrated to have a significant relationship with recurrence after CR, with HRs of 1.650 (p=0.05) and 3.932 (p=0.038), respectively. Increased initial serum AFP > 22 ng/mL, tumor size > 4.5 cm, outside Milan criteria, not receiving a liver transplant and presence of portal vein thrombosis (PVT) were correlated with poor survival.

CONCLUSIONS: In patients treated with TACE as an initial therapy, tumor size (≤4.5 cm) and single tumor were predictive factors for CR. Multiple nodules and an elevated serum AFP > 25 ng/mL were predictive factors for recurrence after CR. Outside Milan criteria tumors, elevated AFP levels and the presence of PVT were significantly correlated with decreased survival.