Time Trends in Incidence and Mortality of Cutaneous Melanoma in Germany.

OBJECTIVES: To characterize incidence and mortality trends of cutaneous melanoma (CM) in Germany to extrapolate these data until 2030.

METHODS: We evaluated data from the Centre for Cancer Registry Data (1999-2012), and from the Saarland cancer registry (1970-2012). Age standardized (according to the European Standard Population, WHO 1976) incidence and mortality rates (ASIRs, ASMRs) and crude incidence and mortality rates (CIRs, CMRs) were analyzed.

RESULTS: In entire Germany, ASIRs increased by 55% to 19.2 and CIRs by 77% to 26.0 new cases per 100,000 from 1999-2012. ASMRs remained stable, whereas CMR increased by 58% to 4.1 for males, and by 30% to 3.0 for females per 100,000. In the Federal State of Saarland ASIRs increased more than 4 fold to 13.1, CIRs increased 6-7 fold to 18.5/100,000 from 1970-2012. In the same period, ASMRs increased 3 fold in males and 2 fold in females to 2.5 and 1.6, whereas CMRs increased 5.5 fold in males and 3.5 fold in females to 3.9 and 3.2/100,000, mainly caused by steep increases of CIRs and CMRs in age groups ≥60 years. Projected CIRs will rise to 44-46 for males and 38-40 for females in 2030. Steepest increases were extrapolated for patients ≥60 years, especially for males, but are also expected for age groups of 40-59 years. In contrast CIRs are anticipated to stabilize for subjects <40 years.

CONCLUSIONS: There is a constant increase of incidence and mortality rates for CM in Germany. As the German population is ageing and the current population has already accumulated high levels of UV exposure, a further increase in melanoma incidence, is projected for the future without signs of leveling-off. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.