Radiomics nomogram for predicting the malignant potential of gastrointestinal stromal tumours preoperatively.

OBJECTIVE: To develop and evaluate a radiomics nomogram for differentiating the malignant risk of gastrointestinal stromal tumours (GISTs).

METHODS: A total of 222 patients (primary cohort: n = 130, our centre; external validation cohort: n = 92, two other centres) with pathologically diagnosed GISTs were enrolled. A Relief algorithm was used to select the feature subset with the best distinguishing characteristics and to establish a radiomics model with a support vector machine (SVM) classifier for malignant risk differentiation. Determinant clinical characteristics and subjective CT features were assessed to separately construct a corresponding model. The models showing statistical significance in a multivariable logistic regression analysis were used to develop a nomogram. The diagnostic performance of these models was evaluated using ROC curves. Further calibration of the nomogram was evaluated by calibration curves.

RESULTS: The generated radiomics model had an AUC value of 0.867 (95% CI 0.803-0.932) in the primary cohort and 0.847 (95% CI 0.765-0.930) in the external cohort. In the entire cohort, the AUCs for the radiomics model, subjective CT findings model, clinical index model and radiomics nomogram were 0.858 (95% CI 0.807-0.908), 0.774 (95% CI 0.713-0.835), 0.759 (95% CI 0.697-0.821) and 0.867 (95% CI 0.818-0.915), respectively. The nomogram showed good calibration.

CONCLUSIONS: This radiomics nomogram predicted the malignant potential of GISTs with excellent accuracy and may be used as an effective tool to guide preoperative clinical decision-making.

KEY POINTS: • CT-based radiomics model can differentiate low- and high-malignant-potential GISTs with satisfactory accuracy compared with subjective CT findings and clinical indexes. • Radiomics nomogram integrated with the radiomics signature, subjective CT findings and clinical indexes can achieve individualised risk prediction with improved diagnostic performance. • This study might provide significant and valuable background information for further studies such as response evaluation of neoadjuvant imatinib and recurrence risk prediction.