Impact of meteorological factors on scarlet fever in Jiangsu province, China.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to examine the relationships between meteorological factors and the incidence of scarlet fever in different populations for scientific prevention strategies.

STUDY DESIGN: An ecological study was conducted.

METHODS: The seasonal index was used to detect the seasonal pattern of scarlet fever. A generalized additive model was conducted to estimate the impact of meteorological factors on scarlet fever in different age groups in Jiangsu province.

RESULTS: Among the 15,873 cases, the vast majority of cases (91.84%) occurred in the population between 3 and 14 years old, with an average annual incidence rate of 14.51 per 100,000, and 2.81 per 100,000 in the age group ≤2 years old. In the generalized additive model, the risk of scarlet fever increased gradually with the temperature rising in both age groups. Interestingly, with the monthly mean temperature above 20 °C, the risk of scarlet fever presented a declining trend in those aged 3-14 years, while it kept stable in the age group ≤2 years. The temperature range only showed a positive effect in the population aged 3-14 years when it was above 9 °C.

CONCLUSIONS: This study revealed the different effects of meteorological factors on scarlet fever in different populations. Surveillance and targeted preventions in the population aged 3-14 years should be enhanced during March-June and November to the following January. Meanwhile, the health education of the guardians was the key to reducing the disease in the age group ≤2 years.