The population-level impact of public-sector antiretroviral therapy rollout on adult mortality in rural Malawi.

BACKGROUND: Recent evidence from health and demographic surveillance sites (HDSS) has shown that increasing access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is reducing mortality rates in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). However, due to limited vital statistics registration in many of the countries most affected by the HIV/AIDS epidemic, there is limited evidence of the magnitude of ART's effect outside of specific HDSS sites. This paper leverages longitudinal household/family roster data from the Malawi Longitudinal Survey of Families and Health (MLSFH) to estimate the effect of ART availability in public clinics on population-level mortality based on a geographically dispersed sample of individuals in rural Malawi.

OBJECTIVE: We seek to provide evidence on the population-level magnitude of the ART-associated mortality decline in rural Malawi and confirm that this population is experiencing similar declines in mortality as those seen in HDSS sites.

METHODS: We analyze longitudinal household/family-roster data from four waves of the MLSFH to estimate mortality change after the introduction of ART to study areas. We analyze life expectancy using the Kaplan-Meier estimator and examine how the mortality hazard changed over time by individual characteristics with Cox regression.

RESULTS: In the four years following rollout of ART, life expectancy at age 15 increased by 3.1 years (95% CI 1.1, 5.1), and median length of life rose by over ten years.

CONTRIBUTION: Our observations show that the increased availability of ART resulted in a substantial and sustained reversal of mortality trends in SSA and assuage concerns that the post-ART reversals in mortality are not occurring at the same magnitude outside of specific HDSSs.