Prospective study of serial 18 F-FDG PET and 18 F-fluoride ( 18 F-NaF) PET to predict time to skeletal related events, time-to-progression, and survival in patients with bone-dominant metastatic breast cancer.

Assessing therapy response of breast cancer bone metastases is challenging. In retrospective studies, serial 18 F-FDG PET was predictive of time to skeletal related events (tSRE) and time-to-progression (TTP). 18 F-NaF PET improves bone metastasis detection compared to bone scans. We prospectively tested 18 F-FDG PET and 18 F-NaF PET to predict tSRE, TTP, and overall survival (OS) in patients with bone-dominant metastatic breast cancer (BD MBC). Methods: Patients with BD MBC were imaged with 18 F-FDG PET and 18 F-NaF PET prior to starting new therapy (scan1) and again at a range of times centered around approximately 4 months later (scan2). SUVmax and SULpeak were recorded for a single index lesion and up to 5 most dominant lesions for each scan. tSRE, TTP, and OS were assessed exclusive of the PET images. Univariate Cox regression was performed to test the association between clinical endpoints and 18 F-FDG PET and 18 F-NaF PET measures. mPERCIST (Modified PET Response Criteria in Solid Tumors) criteria were also applied. Survival curves for mPERCIST compared response categories of Complete Response+Partial Response+Stable Disease versus Progressive Disease (CR+PR+SD vs PD) for tSRE, TTP, and OS. Results: Twenty-eight patients were evaluated. Higher FDG SULpeak at scan2 predicted shorter time to tSRE ( P = <0.001) and TTP ( P = 0.044). Higher FDG SUVmax at scan2 predicted a shorter time to tSRE ( P = <0.001). A multivariable model using FDG SUVmax of the index lesion at scan1 plus the difference in SUVmax of up to 5 lesions between scans was predictive for tSRE and TTP. Among 24 patients evaluable by 18 F-FDG PET mPERCIST, tSRE and TTP were longer in responders (CR, PR, or stable) compared to non-responders (PD) ( P = 0.007, 0.028 respectively), with a trend toward improved survival ( P = 0.1). An increase in the uptake between scans of up to 5 lesions by 18 F-NaF PET was associated with longer OS ( P = 0.027). Conclusion: Changes in 18 F-FDG PET parameters during therapy are predictive of tSRE and TTP, but not OS. mPERCIST evaluation in bone lesions may be useful in assessing response to therapy and is worthy of evaluation in multicenter, prospective trials. Serial 18 F-NaF PET was associated with OS, but was not useful for predicting TTP or tSRE in BD MBC.