Development of a cardiovascular diseases risk prediction model and tools for Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: A population-based retrospective cohort study

Eric Yuk Fai Wan, Daniel Yee Tak Fong, Colman Siu Cheung Fung, Esther Yee Tak Yu, Weng Yee Chin, Anca Ka Chun Chan, Cindy Lo Kuen Lam
Diabetes, Obesity & Metabolism 2018, 20 (2): 309-318

AIMS: Evidence-based cardiovascular diseases (CVD) risk prediction models and tools specific for Chinese patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are currently unavailable. This study aimed to develop and validate a CVD risk prediction model for Chinese T2DM patients.

METHODS: A retrospective cohort study was conducted with 137 935 Chinese patients aged 18 to 79 years with T2DM and without prior history of CVD, who had received public primary care services between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2010. Using the derivation cohort over a median follow-up of 5 years, the interaction effect between predictors and age were derived using Cox proportional hazards regression with a forward stepwise approach. Harrell's C statistic and calibration plot were used on the validation cohort to assess the discrimination and calibration of the models. The web calculator and chart were developed based on the developed models.

RESULTS: For both genders, predictors for higher risk of CVD were older age, smoking, longer diabetes duration, usage of anti-hypertensive drug and insulin, higher body mass index, haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), systolic and diastolic blood pressure, a total cholesterol to high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (TC/HDL-C) ratio and urine albumin to creatinine ratio, and lower estimated glomerular filtration rate. Interaction factors with age demonstrated a greater weighting of TC/HDL-C ratio in both younger females and males, and smoking status and HbA1c in younger males.

CONCLUSION: The developed models, translated into a web calculator and color-coded chart, served as evidence-based visual aids that facilitate clinicians to estimate quickly the 5-year CVD risk for Chinese T2DM patients and to guide intervention.

Full Text Links

Find Full Text Links for this Article


You are not logged in. Sign Up or Log In to join the discussion.

Trending Papers

Remove bar
Read by QxMD icon Read

Save your favorite articles in one place with a free QxMD account.


Search Tips

Use Boolean operators: AND/OR

diabetic AND foot
diabetes OR diabetic

Exclude a word using the 'minus' sign

Virchow -triad

Use Parentheses

water AND (cup OR glass)

Add an asterisk (*) at end of a word to include word stems

Neuro* will search for Neurology, Neuroscientist, Neurological, and so on

Use quotes to search for an exact phrase

"primary prevention of cancer"
(heart or cardiac or cardio*) AND arrest -"American Heart Association"