Usefulness of the Glasgow-Blatchford score to predict 1-week mortality in patients with esophageal variceal bleeding.

OBJECTIVES: Esophageal variceal bleeding is one of the most severe complications of liver cirrhosis, with high mortality. However, there is no established scoring system for short-term mortality in patients with esophageal variceal bleeding. The aim of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of the Glasgow-Blatchford score (GBS), the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, and the Child-Pugh score for predicting short-term and hospital mortality in patients with esophageal variceal bleeding.

METHODS: A total of 47 patients with esophageal variceal bleeding were studied between September 2009 and March 2015. The GBS, the MELD score, and the Child-Pugh score were assessed for their ability to predict 1- and 6-week mortality rates using a receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS: The 1- and 6-week mortality rates were 17.0 and 31.9%, respectively. The median GBS, MELD, and Child-Pugh scores were 13 (range: 4-19), 10 (range: 0-34), and 9 (range: 5-13), respectively. The GBS was superior to both the MELD and the Child-Pugh scores for prediction of 1-week mortality [area under the curve=0.82 (95% confidence interval: 0.66-0.98) vs. 0.71 (0.47-0.96) and 0.72 (0.53-0.91)]. The MELD score was superior to both the Child-Pugh score and the GBS for prediction of 6-week mortality [area under the curve=0.83 (95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.97) vs. 0.69 (0.52-0.85) and 0.67 (0.50-0.83)].

CONCLUSION: For 1-week mortality, the GBS was superior to the Child-Pugh and the MELD scores in patients with esophageal variceal bleeding. However, for 6-week mortality, the MELD score was superior in patients with esophageal variceal bleeding.