Defining Health Trajectories in Older Adults With Five Clinical Indicators.

BACKGROUND: People age differently, challenging the identification of those more at risk of rapid health deterioration. This study aimed to explore the heterogeneity in the health of older adults by using five clinical indicators to detect age-related variation and individual health trajectories over time.

METHODS: Health of 3,363 people aged 60+ from the Swedish National study on Aging and Care-Kungsholmen (SNAC-K) assessed at baseline and at 3- and 6-year follow-ups. Number of chronic diseases, physical and cognitive performance, personal and instrumental activities of daily living were integrated in a health assessment tool (HAT). Interindividual health differences at baseline and follow-ups were assessed with logistic quantile regression. Intraindividual health trajectories were traced with quantile mixed-effect models.

RESULTS: The HAT score ranges from 0 (poor health) to 10 (good health); each score corresponds to a specific clinical profile. HAT was reliable over time and accurately predicted adverse health outcomes (receiver-operating characteristic areas: hospitalization = 0.78; 95% confidence interval = 0.74-0.81; mortality = 0.85; 95% confidence interval = 0.83-0.87; similar areas obtained for gait speed). Before age 85, at least 90% of participants were free of severe disability, and at least 50% were functionally independent despite chronic disorders. Age- and sex-related variation and high heterogeneity in health were detected at baseline and confirmed by intraindividual health trajectories.

CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a positive picture of the health status of people 60+. Despite the complexity and heterogeneity of health in this age group, we could identify age- and sex-specific health trajectories using an integrated HAT. HAT is potentially useful in clinical practice and public health interventions.