Association between community management of pneumonia and diarrhoea in high-burden countries and the decline in under-five mortality rates: an ecological analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of the paper is to explore if the adoption of national policies to use community-based health providers for the management of pneumonia and diarrhoea is associated with the decline in under-five mortality, including achievement of the Millennium Development Goal (MDG)4 target, in high-burden countries.

SETTING: This country level analysis covers 75 high-burden low-income and middle-income countries which accounted for 98% of the 5.9 million global under-five deaths in 2015. One-fourth of these deaths were due to pneumonia and diarrhoea.

METHODS: χ2 tests and multiple regression analysis were used to examine the association between reduction in under-five mortality rates and community case management of pneumonia and diarrhoea by adjusting for the influence of other possible determinants.

PARTICIPANTS: No patient or population interviewed/examined for this analysis. Countries were the unit of analysis.

INTERVENTIONS: Community case management (CCM) of pneumonia and diarrhoea policies.

OUTCOME MEASURES: Changes in under-five mortality rates over time.

RESULTS: Countries that had adopted both CCM policies were three times more likely to achieve the MDG4 target than countries that did not have both policies in place. This association was further confirmed by the multivariate analysis (β-coefficient=10.4; 95% CI 2.4 to 18.5; p value=0.012).

DISCUSSION: There is a statistically significant association between adoption of CCM policies for treatment of pneumonia and diarrhoea and the rate of decline in child mortality levels. It is important to promote CCM in countries lagging behind to achieve the new target of 25 or fewer deaths per 1000 live births by 2030.