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JOURNAL ARTICLE

Development of a clinical prediction score for congestive heart failure diagnosis in the emergency care setting: The Brest score

Adrien Basset, Emmanuel Nowak, Philippe Castellant, Christophe Gut-Gobert, Grégoire Le Gal, Erwan L'Her
American Journal of Emergency Medicine 2016, 34 (12): 2277-2283
27599400

OBJECTIVE: To derive and validate a clinical prediction rule of acute congestive heart failure obtainable in the emergency care setting.

DESIGN: Derivation of the score was performed on a retrospective 927 patients cohort admitted to our Emergency Department for dyspnea. The prediction model was externally validated on an independent 206-patient prospective cohort.

INTERVENTIONS AND MEASURES: During the derivation phase, variables associated with acute congestive heart failure were included in a multivariate regression model. Logistic regression coefficients were used to assign scoring points to each variable. During the validation phase, every diagnosis was confirmed by an independent adjudication committee.

RESULTS: The score comprised 11 variables: age ≥65 years (1 point), seizure dyspnea (2 points), night outbreak (1 point), orthopnea (1 point), history of pulmonary edema (2 points), chronic pulmonary disease (-2 points), myocardial infarction (1 point), crackles (2 points), leg edema (1 point), ST-segment abnormality (1 point), atrial fibrillation/flutter (1 point) on electrocardiography. In the validation step, 30 patients (14.6%) had a low clinical probability of acute congestive heart failure (score ≤3), of which only 2 (6.7%) had a proven acute cardiogenic pulmonary edema. The prevalence of acute congestive heart failure was 58.5% in the 94 patients with an intermediate probability (score of 4-8) and 91.5% in the 82 patients (39.8%) with a high probability (score ≥9).

CONCLUSION: This score of acute congestive heart failure based on easily available and objective variables is entirely standardized. Applying the score to dyspneic adult emergency patients may enable a more rapid and efficient diagnostic process.

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Malcolm Gordon

Interesting idea but tiny numbers. Needs a multicentre, large validation study. QEUH in Glasgow would be willing to help set one up. Malcolm Gordon, Clinical Director.

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