Global cardiovascular mortality risk in the adult Polish population: prospective assessment of the cohorts studied in multicentre national WOBASZ and WOBASZ Senior studies.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: To develop a global cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality risk model for the Polish population and to verify these data in the context of the SCORE risk algorithm.

METHODS: We analysed data obtained in two multicentre national population studies, the WOBASZ study which was conducted in 2003-2005 and included 14,769 subjects aged 20-74 years, and the WOBASZ Senior study which was conducted in 2007 and included 1096 subjects above 74 years of age. All these subjects were followed for survival status until 2012 and the cause of death was determined. The mean duration of follow-up was 8.2 years for WOBASZ study participants and about 5 years for WOBASZ Senior study participants. Overall, 1436 subjects died, including 568 due to CVD. For the purpose of our analysis of overall and CVD mortality, 15 established risk factors were selected. Survival was analysed separately in WOBASZ and WOBASZ Senior study participants. Statistical methods included descriptive statistics, Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox proportional hazard models, and the SCORE risk algorithm. Measure of incompatibility of the SCORE risk model to the Polish population was determined as the difference between mortality rates by the SCORE risk quartiles and the Cox approach.

RESULTS: During the 8-year follow-up of the WOBASZ study population, mortality due to CVD was 38% among men and 31% among women. The most common causes of CVD mortality were ischaemic heart disease (IHD, 33%) followed by cerebro-vascular disease (17%) in men, and cerebrovascular disease (31%) followed by IHD (23%) in women. We found significant differences between men and women in regard to survival curves for both overall mortality and CVD mortality (p < 0.0001). For overall mortality among men and women, nearly all selected risk factors were shown to be significant in univariate analyses, except for high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) level and the total cholesterol/HDL-C ratio in men, and smoking status in women. In multivariate analysis, independent predictors in men included age, glucose level, systolic blood pressure, and smoking status. In women, independent predictors were age, smoking status, and diabetes. During the 5-year follow-up of the WOBASZ Senior study population, mortality due to CVD was 48% among men and 58% among women. The most common cause of CVD mortality in both men and women was IHD (29% and 24%, respectively), followed by cerebrovascular disease (16% and 21%, respectively). We found significant differences between men and women in regard to survival curves for overall mortality (p < 0.0001) but not for CVD mortality (p = 0.0755). Due to the fact that survival curves for CVD mortality did not differ between men and women, we estimated the cut-off age for no survival difference in the WOBASZ study. By selecting the oldest patients and adding them to the WOBASZ Senior cohort, we obtained the cut-off age of 70 years above which the survival curves were not significantly different between men and women. In univariate analyses, independent predictors in men were age and creatinine level. These factors remained significant in multivariate analysis. In women above 74 years of age, independent predictors in univariate analyses included age, HDL-C level, creatinine level, total cholesterol/HDL-C ratio, and smoking status. Age, HDL-C level, creatinine level, and smoking status remained independent predictors of overall mortality in multivariate analysis. For CVD mortality, significant predictors were the same as for overall mortality. In women, significant predictors in uni- and multivariate analyses were age and smoking status. Overall disagreement between CVD mortality rates by the SCORE risk model and the Cox model was 5.7% in men and 2% in women.

CONCLUSIONS: 1. Long-term follow-up of WOBASZ and WOBASZ Senior study participants allowed assessment of the inde-pendent association of the evaluated cardiovascular risk factors with CVD mortality in the Polish population. 2. Validation of the SCORE risk algorithm to estimate individual global CVD risk in the Polish population showed a high predictive value of this algorithm.