A Predictive Model Using Histopathologic Characteristics of Early-Stage Type 1 Endometrial Cancer to Identify Patients at High Risk for Lymph Node Metastasis

Sofiane Bendifallah, Geoffroy Canlorbe, Enora Laas, Florence Huguet, Charles Coutant, Delphine Hudry, Olivier Graesslin, Emilie Raimond, Cyril Touboul, Pierre Collinet, Annie Cortez, Géraldine Bleu, Emile Daraï, Marcos Ballester
Annals of Surgical Oncology 2015, 22 (13): 4224-32

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to develop a predictive model using histopathologic characteristics of early-stage type 1 endometrial cancer (EC) to identify patients at high risk for lymph node (LN) metastases.

METHODS: The data of 523 patients who received primary surgical treatment between January 2001 and December 2012 were abstracted from a prospective multicenter database (training set). A multivariate logistic regression analysis of selected prognostic features was performed to develop a nomogram predicting LN metastases. To assess its accuracy, an internal validation technique with a bootstrap approach was adopted. The optimal threshold in terms of clinical utility, sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive values (NPVs), and positive predictive values (PPVs) was evaluated by the receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve area and the Youden Index.

RESULTS: Overall, the LN metastasis rate was 12.4 % (65/523). Lymph node metastases were associated with histologic grade, tumor diameter, depth of myometrial invasion, and lymphovascular space involvement status. These variables were included in the nomogram. Discrimination of the model was 0.83 [95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.80-0.85] in the training set. The area under the curve ROC for predicting LN metastases after internal validation was 0.82 (95 % CI 0.80-0.84). The Youden Index provided a value of 0.2, corresponding to a cutoff of 140 points (total score in the algorithm). At this threshold, the model had a sensitivity of 0.73 (95 % CI 0.62-0.83), a specificity of 0.84 (95 % CI 0.82-0.85), a PPV of 0.40 (95 % CI 0.34-0.45), and an NPV of 0.95 (95 % CI 0.94-0.97).

CONCLUSION: The results show that the risk of LN metastases can be predicted correctly so that patients at high risk can benefit from adapted surgical treatment.

Full Text Links

Find Full Text Links for this Article


You are not logged in. Sign Up or Log In to join the discussion.

Related Papers

Remove bar
Read by QxMD icon Read

Save your favorite articles in one place with a free QxMD account.


Search Tips

Use Boolean operators: AND/OR

diabetic AND foot
diabetes OR diabetic

Exclude a word using the 'minus' sign

Virchow -triad

Use Parentheses

water AND (cup OR glass)

Add an asterisk (*) at end of a word to include word stems

Neuro* will search for Neurology, Neuroscientist, Neurological, and so on

Use quotes to search for an exact phrase

"primary prevention of cancer"
(heart or cardiac or cardio*) AND arrest -"American Heart Association"

We want to hear from doctors like you!

Take a second to answer a survey question.