Assessment of the Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) Score in Predicting Prognosis of Patients with Alcoholic Hepatitis.

BACKGROUND: Traditionally, Maddrey discriminant function (DF) score has been used for stratifying the prognosis of alcoholic hepatitis. Recently, the Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score has been applied to alcoholic hepatitis and some investigators consider MELD score as a better prognostic indicator. Another new prognostic approach, Lille model has been also suggested to accurately identify patients at high risk of death. Therefore, this prospective study was aimed to compare MELD, DF, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores and Lille model for predicting the short-term mortality in Indian patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

METHODS: We calculated the DF, CTP, MELD and Lille scores in patients hospitalized with alcoholic hepatitis & evaluated if the scores predicted in-hospital mortality.

RESULTS: A total of 104 patients were enrolled and thirty-two (30.7%) patients died during the hospitalization (2-30 days). Admission DF score (OR 1.1, P < 0.04), CTP (OR 2, P < 0.05) MELD score (OR 2.2, P < 0.005) and first week MELD score (OR 1.1, P < 0.05) were independently associated with in-hospital mortality. The area under the receiver-operating curve (AUROC) for the admission and day 7 MELD score was significantly higher than CTP score and was comparable to DF score and Lille model (AUC & 95% CI: 0.97 [0.95-1.0], 0.99 [0.99-1.0], 0.91 [0.83-0.91] and 0.92 [0.86-0.98] for MELD at admission & day 7, admission DF and Lille model, respectively). The MELD score >14 at admission and >12 at day 7 had high sensitivity and specificity in predicting short-term mortality (96%, 89% and 95%, 98% respectively). The cutoff of 0.45 for the Lille model was able to identify 79% of the observed deaths, whereas DF score ≥32 for DF were able to identify 85%.

CONCLUSION: MELD score, as a predictive model for assessment of short-term mortality in alcoholic hepatitis is better than CTP and comparable to DF and Lille model.