New simple prognostic score for primary biliary cirrhosis: Albumin-bilirubin score.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Serum albumin and bilirubin are the most significant independent prognostic factors to predict hepatic events in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC). We aimed to investigate the prognostic significance of a new prognostic score, the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, among PBC patients.

METHODS: In a retrospective longitudinal cohort of 61 Chinese PBC patients with follow-up period up to 18.3 years, the prognostic performance of the ALBI in prediction of hepatic events was compared with other well-established prognostic scores: Child-Pugh score, model of end-stage liver disease, Mayo risk score, Yale, European, and Newcastle models.

RESULTS: Fifteen patients (24.6%) developed hepatic events during follow-up. The c-index (0.894) and χ(2) by likelihood ratio test (36.34) of the ALBI score were highest in comparison to other models. The ALBI score was the only independent prognostic factor by multivariate analysis and its adjusted hazard ratio of developing hepatic event was 27.8 (P < 0.001). There were three prognostically different groups stratified by the ALBI score: ALBI grade 1 (≤ -2.60), grade 2 (> -2.60 to -1.39), and grade 3 (> -1.39) groups. The 2-, 5-, and 10-year event-free survivals for grade 1, grade 2, and grade 3 groups were 100.0% versus 100.0% versus 57.1%, 100.0% versus 88.5% versus 14.3%, and 100.0% versus 81.7% versus 0.0%, respectively (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION: The ALBI score is readily derived from a blood test without using those factors evaluated subjectively or obtained by invasive procedures. It is an independent prognostic factor for PBC patients and provides better/similar prognostic performance compared with other prognostic scores.