Predicting stroke outcome using clinical- versus imaging-based scoring system.

BACKGROUND: Several models to predict outcome in ischemic stroke patients receiving intravenous (i.v.) alteplase can be divided into clinical-based and imaging-based systems. Alberta Stroke Program Early Computed Tomography (CT) Score (ASPECTS) and Dense cerebral artery sign/early infarct signs on admission CT scan, prestroke modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score, Age, Glucose level at baseline, Onset-to-treatment time, and baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score (DRAGON) are typical imaging- and clinical-based scoring systems, respectively. Therefore, we compared predictability of stroke outcome of clinical (DRAGON)- and imaging (ASPECTS)-based scoring systems.

METHODS: We analyzed patients who were diagnosed with middle cerebral artery territory stroke and treated with i.v. alteplase at Gachon University Gil Hospital over 5 years and compared performance of 2 scoring systems for prediction of good functional outcome (mRS, 0-2) with Pearson correlation and area under the curve-receiver operating characteristic (AUC-ROC). In addition, we analyzed predicting power of several clinical factors and 2 scoring systems by multiple regression analysis.

RESULTS: Study population (N = 120) had mean age of 66.2 ± 13.2 years. ASPECTS (r = -.841, P < .0001) and DRAGON (r = .657, P < .0001) were significantly correlated with good functional outcome. In addition, statistical comparisons suggested that ASPECTS (AUC-ROC, .972; 95% confidence interval [CI], .947-.996) is significantly superior to DRAGON (AUC-ROC, .854; 95% CI, .786-.922) in predicting functional outcome (difference between areas, .118 ± .0332; 95% CI, .0559-.180, P = .0002). Multiple regression analysis revealed that ASPECTS was the independent predictor of good prognosis (OR, 6.59 per 1-point increase; 95% CI, 2.35-18.49; P < .0001 and OR, 77.67 for ASPECTS ≥ 8; 95% CI, 14.30-421.79; P < .0001).

CONCLUSIONS: ASPECTS is superior method for predicting functional outcome in acute ischemic stroke patients receiving i.v. alteplase compared with DRAGON and integration of ASPECTS score into clinical care pathway as decision-making tool can be reasonable.