The impact of risk score (CHADS2 versus CHA2DS2-VASc) on long-term outcomes after atrial fibrillation ablation.

BACKGROUND: Risk stratification tools are needed to select the right candidates for catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation (AF). Both the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores have utility in predicting AF-related outcomes and guiding anticoagulation treatment.

OBJECTIVE: We sought to determine whether these risk scores predict long-term outcomes after AF ablation and whether one risk score provides comparatively superior performance.

METHODS: CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores were calculated in 2179 patients who underwent a first ablation procedure for AF enrolled in the Intermountain Heart Collaborative Study. CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores were categorized as 0-1, 2-4, and ≥5. Patient outcomes were analyzed over 5 years for AF/atrial flutter recurrence and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: composite of death, stroke, and heart failure hospitalization).

RESULTS: The mean age was 65.7 ± 10.5 years, and 61.1% were men. Both scores incrementally predicted risk of AF recurrence, stroke, heart failure, and death at 5 years. Increasing CHADS2 (hazard ratio [HR] 1.19; P < .001) and CHA2DS2-VASc (HR 1.15; P < .0001) scores were both associated with AF/atrial flutter recurrence. The results were similar for MACE where increasing CHADS2 (HR 1.54; P < .0001) and CHA2DS2-VASc (HR 1.32; P < .0001) scores were associated with risk. When CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores were modeled together, only CHA2DS2-VASc scores significantly predicted AF recurrence (HR 1.13; P = .001), but both were associated with MACE.

CONCLUSION: Both the CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores were excellent in stratifying patients for 5-year outcomes after AF ablation. However, the CHA2DS2-VASc score was superior to the CHADS2 score in predicting AF recurrence and AF-related morbidities.