Cardiac surgery in patients with liver cirrhosis: risk factors for predicting mortality.

AIM: To evaluate the results of cardiac surgery in cirrhotic patients and to find the predictors of early and late mortality.

METHODS: We included 55 consecutive cirrhotic patients undergoing cardiac surgery between 1993 and 2012. Child-Turcotte-Pugh (Child) classification and Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score were used to assess the severity of liver cirrhosis. The online EuroSCORE II calculator was used to calculate the logistic EuroSCORE in each patient. Stepwise logistic regression analysis was used to identify the risk factors for mortality at different times after surgery. Multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were applied to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) of predictors for mortality. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to generate survival curves, and the survival rates between groups were compared using the log-rank test.

RESULTS: There were 30 patients in Child class A, 20 in Child B, and five in Child C. The hospital mortality rate was 16.4%. The actuarial survival rates were 70%, 64%, 56%, and 44% at 1, 2, 3, and 5 years after surgery, respectively. There were no significant differences in major postoperative complications, and early and late mortality between patients with mild and advanced cirrhosis. Multivariate logistic regression showed preoperative serum bilirubin, the EuroSCORE and coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) were associated with early and late mortality; however, Child class and MELD score were not. Cox regression analysis identified male gender (HR = 0.319; P = 0.009), preoperative serum bilirubin (HR = 1.244; P = 0.044), the EuroSCORE (HR = 1.415; P = 0.001), and CABG (HR = 3.344; P = 0.01) as independent risk factors for overall mortality.

CONCLUSION: Advanced liver cirrhosis should not preclude patients from cardiac surgery. Preoperative serum bilirubin, the EuroSCORE, and CABG are major predictors of early and late mortality.