Left ventricular dilation and incident congestive heart failure in asymptomatic adults without cardiovascular disease: multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA).

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist on the association between left ventricular (LV) dilation/remodeling and incident heart failure (HF), especially in adults without prior myocardial infarction (MI) and valvular heart disease. We assessed the association between LV dilation and remodeling and incident HF in a multiethnic cohort.

METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 4,974 of 6,814 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) had cardiac magnetic resonance imaging and complete data. Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazard analyses were used to assess the association between LV end-diastolic diameter (LVEDD) and adjudicated HF. During the 12 years of follow-up (mean 9.4 y), 177 (3.6%) HF events occurred, 126 (71.2%) in HF with reduced ejection fraction (EF) and 51 (28.8%) in HF with preserved EF. LV dilation (LVEDD >52 mm or >95th percentile) was associated with HF in univariate (hazard ratio [HR] 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.08-1.46; P = .007) and multivariable Cox models (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.09-1.57; P = .01) adjusting for traditional risk factors, medication use, LV EF, and interim MI. We found a significant multiplicative interaction between LVEDD and LV EF in our full multivariable models. Participants with dilated LV and preserved EF had increased risk [HR 2.22, 95% CI 1.46-3.37; P = .006) and those with dilated LV and reduced EF had worse prognosis (HR 7.35, 95% CI 2.36-22.85; P = .0006) compared with normal-size LV and preserved EF. A high proportion of participants with LV dilation had eccentric remodeling, a risk factor for HF. Concentric hypertrophy, also a risk factor for HF, was common in the normal-size LV group.

CONCLUSIONS: LV dilation predicts incident HF independently from risk factors, LV EF, and interim MI.