The long-term risks of end stage renal disease and mortality among First Nations and non-First Nations people with youth-onset diabetes.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the long-term risks of end stage renal disease and death among First Nations and non-First Nations people with youth-onset diabetes.

METHODS: Using Saskatchewan Ministry of Health administrative databases covering the period between 1980 and 2005, we conducted a retrospective cohort study of end stage renal disease and death among youth with diabetes diagnosed before age 20. We developed Fine and Gray sub-distribution hazards models and cumulative incidence functions for the 2 outcomes by First Nations status and duration of diabetes.

RESULTS: Incident cases of youth-onset diabetes were diagnosed in 352 First Nations and 2288 non-First Nations people. Mean ages at diabetes diagnoses were 11.7 and 11.2 years, respectively (p=0.13). Adjusted for sex and age at diabetes diagnosis, the risk for end stage renal disease was 2.59 (95% CI, 1.11-6.04) times higher, and the risk for death 2.64 (95% CI, 1.44-4.87) times higher for First Nations compared to non-First Nations people. After 25 years, the cumulative incidence of end stage renal disease was 12.3% for First Nations people compared to 4.3% in their non-First Nations counterparts. Corresponding mortality rates were 14.6% and 7.2%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS: First Nations people with youth-onset diabetes experience higher long-term risks for end stage renal disease and death than their non-First Nations counterparts. Early identification of type 2 diabetes and secondary prevention of diabetic nephropathy are feasible short-term goals for this high-risk group. More effective primary prevention initiatives and programs to delay diabetes onset are imperative to reverse current trends.