EuroSCORE II and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide for risk evaluation: an observational longitudinal study in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass graft surgery.

BACKGROUND: Postoperative heart failure remains the major cause of death after cardiac surgery. As N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) is a predictor for postoperative heart failure, the aim was to evaluate if preoperative NT-proBNP could provide additional prognostic information to the recently launched EuroSCORE II.

METHODS: A total of 365 patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery were studied prospectively. Preoperative NT-proBNP and EuroSCORE II were evaluated with regard to severe circulatory failure after operation according to prespecified criteria. To assess what clinical outcomes are indicated by NT-proBNP levels in different risk categories, the patients were stratified according to EuroSCORE II. Based on receiver operating characteristics analysis, these cohorts were assessed with regard to preoperative NT-proBNP below or above 1028 ng litre(-1). The follow-up time averaged 4.4 (0.7) yr.

RESULTS: Preoperative NT-proBNP≥1028 ng litre(-1) [odds ratio (OR) 9.9, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-98.9; P=0.049] and EuroSCORE II (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.06-1.46; P=0.008) independently predicted severe circulatory failure after operation. In intermediate-risk patients (EuroSCORE II 2.0-10.0), NT-proBNP≥1028 ng litre(-1) was associated with a higher incidence of severe circulatory failure (6.6% vs 0%; P=0.007), renal failure (14.8% vs 5.4%; P=0.03), stroke (6.6% vs 0.7%; P=0.03), longer intensive care unit stay [37 (35) vs 27 (38) h; P=0.002], and worse long-term survival.

CONCLUSIONS: Combining EuroSCORE II and preoperative NT-proBNP appears to improve risk prediction with regard to severe circulatory failure after isolated CABG for ACS. NT-proBNP may be particularly useful in patients at intermediate risk according to EuroSCORE II.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: NCT00489827.