Long-term progression from paroxysmal to permanent atrial fibrillation following transcatheter ablation in a large single-center experience.

BACKGROUND: The natural history of atrial fibrillation (AF) is characterized by gradual increase in duration and frequency of relapses until a definitive shift to permanent AF. Heart disease and comorbidities modulate AF progression. However, to date the influence of catheter ablation on AF evolution has rarely been investigated.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to identify long-term predictors of AF progression in a large cohort of patients undergoing AF transcatheter ablation (AFTCA).

METHODS: A total of 889 patients (mean age 57 ± 11 years; 53.3% paroxysmal AF, 40.5% persistent AF, 6.2% long-standing AF) underwent AFTCA. All patients underwent pulmonary vein isolation, with linear lesions and complex fractionated atrial electrogram ablation reserved for patients with persistent/long-standing AF and/or confirmed structural heart disease.

RESULTS: After median follow-up of 64 months (range 41-84 years), AF progression despite AFTCA occurred in 57 cases (6.4%). However, AF progression was much more pronounced in patients with persistent (10%) or long-standing persistent AF (14.6%) than in those with paroxysmal AF (2.7%, P <.001). Furthermore, AF progression was more frequently reported in patients who presented with underlying comorbidities/cardiomyopathies (9.1%) than in those who presented with lone AF (29.9%, P <.001). At multivariate analysis, comorbidities/cardiomyopathies and baseline persistent/long-standing AF proved to be independent predictors of progression (odds ratio 11.3, 95% confidence interval 2.6-48.0, P <.001, and odds ratio 1.6, 95% confidence interval 1.2-2.1, P <.001, respectively).

CONCLUSION: The presence of comorbidities/cardiomyopathies and persistent/long-standing AF seem to predict AF progression in patients undergoing AFTCA. Performing AFTCA in the paroxysmal phase of the arrhythmia may reduce progression of AF to its permanent form.