Serial position effects are sensitive predictors of conversion from MCI to Alzheimer's disease dementia.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether the predictive strength of established cognitive variables for progression to Alzheimer's disease (AD) dementia from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) varies depending on time to conversion. We investigated which cognitive variables were best predictors, and which of these variables remained predictive for patients with longer times to conversion.

METHODS: Seventy-five participants with MCI were assessed on measures of learning, memory, language, and executive function. Relative predictive strengths of these measures were analyzed using Cox regression models.

RESULTS: Measures of word-list position-namely, serial position scores-together with Short Delay Free Recall of word-list learning best predicted conversion to AD dementia. However, only serial position scores predicted those participants with longer time to conversion.

CONCLUSIONS: Results emphasize that the predictive strength of cognitive variables varies depending on time to conversion to dementia. Moreover, finer measures of learning captured by serial position scores were the most sensitive predictors of AD dementia.