Soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors and heart failure risk in older adults: Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study.

BACKGROUND: Tumor necrosis factor (TNF) levels are associated with risk for heart failure (HF). The soluble TNF type 1 (sTNF-R1) and type 2 (sTNF-R2) receptors are elevated in patients with manifest HF, but whether they are associated with risk for incident HF is unclear.

METHODS AND RESULTS: Using Cox proportional hazard models, we examined the association between baseline levels of sTNF-R1 and sTNF-R2 with incident HF risk among 1285 participants of the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study (age, 74.0±2.9 years; 51.4% women; 41.1% black). At baseline, median (interquartile range) of TNF, sTNF-R1, and sTNF-R2 levels was 3.14 (2.42-4.06), 1.46 (1.25-1.76), and 3.43 (2.95-4.02) ng/mL, respectively. During a median follow-up of 11.4 (6.9-11.7) years, 233 (18.1%) participants developed HF. In models controlling for other HF risk factors, TNF (hazard ratio [HR], 1.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.61 per log2 increase) and sTNF-R1 (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.15-2.46 per log2 increase), but not sTNF-R2 (HR, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.80-1.63 per log2 increase), were associated with a higher risk for HF. These associations were consistent across whites and blacks (TNF, sTNF-R1, sTNF-R2; interaction P=0.531, 0.091, and 0.795, respectively) and in both sexes (TNF, sTNF-R1, sTNF-R2; interaction P=0.491, 0.672, and 0.999, respectively). TNF-R1 was associated with a higher risk for HF with preserved versus reduced ejection fraction (HR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.03-3.18; P=0.038 for preserved versus HR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.56-1.44; P=0.667 for reduced ejection fraction; interaction P=0.05).

CONCLUSIONS: In older adults, elevated levels of sTNF-R1 are associated with increased risk for incident HF. However, addition of TNF-R1 to the previously validated Health ABC HF risk model did not demonstrate material improvement in net discrimination or reclassification.