Post-treatment levels of α-fetoprotein predict incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma after interferon therapy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: In patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection, lack of sustained virologic response (SVR) 24 weeks after the end of interferon therapy is a significant risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Although many pretreatment factors are known to affect HCC incidence, less is known about post-treatment factors-many change during the course of interferon therapy.

METHODS: We performed a prospective study, collecting data from 2659 patients with chronic hepatitis C without a history of HCC who had been treated with pegylated interferon (Peg-IFN) plus ribavirin from 2002 through 2008 at hospitals in Japan. Biopsy specimens were collected before treatment; all patients received Peg-IFN plus ribavirin for 48 to 72 weeks (HCV genotype 1) or 24 weeks (HCV genotype 2). Hematologic, biochemical, and virologic data were collected every 4 weeks during treatment and every 6 months after treatment. HCC was diagnosed based on angiography, computed tomography, and/or magnetic resonance imaging findings.

RESULTS: HCC developed in 104 patients during a mean observation period of 40 months. Older age, male sex, lower platelet counts and higher levels of α-fetoprotein at baseline, and lack of an SVR were significant risk factors for HCC. The cumulative incidence of HCC was significantly lower in patients without SVRs who relapsed than those with no response to treatment. Levels of α-fetoprotein 24 weeks after the end of treatment (AFP24) were significantly lower than levels of α-fetoprotein at baseline in patients with SVRs and those who relapsed, but not in nonresponders. Post-treatment risk factors for HCC among patients with SVRs included higher AFP24 level and older age; among those without SVRs, risk factors included higher AFP24 level, integrated level of alanine aminotransferase, older age, and male sex. AFP24 (≥10 ng/mL, 10-5 ng/mL, and then <5 ng/mL) was a better predictor of HCC incidence than pretreatment level of AFP among patients with and without SVRs.

CONCLUSIONS: In patients with chronic HCV infection, levels of α-fetoprotein decrease during interferon therapy. High post-treatment levels of α-fetoprotein predict HCC, regardless of whether patients achieve an SVR. University Hospital Medical Information Network Clinical Trials Registry: C000000196, C000000197.