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Progression of stages 3b-5 chronic kidney disease--preliminary results of Taiwan national pre-ESRD disease management program in Southern Taiwan.

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE: The outcomes and their predictors, and rates of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) changes among Taiwanese, an ethnic Chinese population, with chronic kidney disease (CKD) stages 3b-5, enrolled in a nationwide pre-end-stage renal disease (pre-ESRD) management program that have not been previously reported.

METHODS: This study focused on a cohort of patients enrolled in the Taiwan's pre-ESRD disease management program from Southern Taiwan, including 4061 CKD 3b-5 patients who received more than 12 weeks of follow-up from 2007 to 2010. The decline rates of eGFR, outcomes, and the predictors of initiating dialysis were analyzed.

RESULTS: The study participants consisted of patients who were 70.1 ± 12.3 years old, of whom 56.4% were male, 46.3% were diabetic, and 72.1% were hypertensive. The mean annual eGFR changes were 0.47 ± 0.42 mL/min/1.73 m(2)/year, -1.27 ± 0.32 mL/min/1.73 m(2)/year, and -2.69 ± 0.39 mL/min/1.73 m(2)/year for stages 3b, 4, and 5, respectively; however, more rapid declines were noted in diabetic patients. The Kaplan-Meier analyses revealed that the probabilities of patients remaining alive and free of dialysis treatment for CKD stage 3b, 4, and 5 without or with diabetes were 89.46% versus 84.65%, 79.88% versus 55.68%, and 34.42% versus 9.64%, respectively, during 42 months of follow-up. Male gender, diabetes, lower baseline eGFR, higher systolic blood pressure, lower hematocrit, and albumin levels were the significant risk factors for initiating dialysis.

CONCLUSION: Even though we cannot conclude with certainty that the Taiwan pre-ESRD disease management program is beneficial in slowing the progression of CKD stages 3b-5, our preliminary results seem to suggest this trend. Furthermore, the program may be improved by integrating it with other programs, such as those on diabetes and hypertension, thus making it a more patient-centered, multidisciplinary program.

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